Climate risk assessments are deemed essential, especially in an alarming shift in climate patterns, increasing the risk of an uncertain future. Smart planning is necessary to mitigate the impacts of climate change and adapt to a sustainable environment. As water scarcity is one of the notable consequences, effective and efficient management of water resources is crucial. Agriculture, the largest consumer of freshwater resources, should account for proper irrigation management to sustain crop production. In this study, long-term irrigation requirements were projected using downscaled data from CMIP-6 models. These models utilize Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), which explore the effect of socio-economic trends on greenhouse gas emission concentration. Precipitation and temperature data from 27 models were downloaded and analyzed to estimate irrigation requirements under two emission scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). Several irrigation triggers were established and tested through the AquaCrop model to determine the best adaption strategies corresponding to the emission scenarios. Model uncertainty is represented by presenting the 25th, median and 75th percentile of irrigation requirement for four distinct timelines: historical (1981-2010), near-term (2011-2040), mid-term (2041-2070) and end of century (2071-2100). The results from this study will be highly beneficial for stakeholders involved in water budgeting and allocation.
